Simulating Future Land Use and Cover of a Mediterranean Mountainous Area: The Effect of Socioeconomic Demands and Climatic Changes

Land use and cover (LUC) of southern European mountains is dramatically changing, mainly due to observed socioeconomic demands climatic changes. It therefore important understand LUC changes accurately predict future landscapes their threats. Simulation models change are ideal for this task because they allow the in silico experimentation under different scenarios. In present study, we employed trans-CLUE-S model, 2055 a typical sub-mountainous area, which has experienced widespread abandonment until recently. Four demand scenarios were tested, each scenario, compared three scenarios, ranging from less more warm dry conditions. We found that farmland declined 3.2% landscape 2015 0.4% business-as-usual whereas forest further increased 62.6% 79%. For any differences between maps predicted constituted than 10% landscape. differed, shifted higher elevation warmer drier climate, grassland scrubland lower. Such insights by modelling analyses like study’s can improve planning implementation management restoration policies will attempt conserve ecosystem services mitigate negative effects mountainous regions Europe.